SHOP
stock55AggressiveShopify Inc.
Information Technology
Snapshot
Commerce platform powering merchants of all sizes. High growth with improving profitability, but a premium multiple and consumer-spending sensitivity.
Long-Term Total Return
Decade-scale view, dividends reinvested, vs. the S&P 500.
Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the period, total return (price + reinvested dividends). Illustrative.
Risk Profile
Higher growth potential with larger drawdowns and uncertainty.
2–5 Year Outlook
Hypothetical bear / base / bull scenarios — not a prediction.
Hypothetical 5-year scenarios for $10,000 invested today.
| Scenario | Annualized | Total return | $10,000 → |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull 36%/yr FCF growth, exit 103× FCF | +37.4%/yr | +389% | $48,942 |
| Base 20%/yr FCF growth, exit 88× FCF | +17.8%/yr | +127% | $22,676 |
| Bear 5%/yr FCF growth, exit 59× FCF | -5.6%/yr | -25% | $7,495 |
Projects free cash flow forward and applies an exit valuation multiple (current ≈ 98× FCF). Dividends added at the current yield.
Technical Indicators
Objective price signals — moving averages, RSI, 52-week range — to interpret, not act on.
Illustrative daily prices (last ~9 months) with 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages — a textbook uptrend.
- RSI 60 — neutral (neither overbought nor oversold).
- 6% below its 52-week high.
- MACD is above its signal line (positive momentum).
Technical indicators are objective descriptions of price behavior, not signals to act on. They are computed from illustrative sample prices and say nothing about a company's value. Not investment advice.
Fundamental Trends
Ten-plus years of the figures that drive long-term value.
10-year fundamental trend charts
Track revenue, earnings, free cash flow, ROIC, share count, and dividends over a decade-plus — a Premium research tool.
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Valuation Context
Valuation context
See P/E, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA against historical and sector medians with Premium.
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Moat Analysis
A growing merchant ecosystem and app/partner network create stickiness; scale in payments and logistics is building, though competition from marketplaces is fierce.
Global e-commerce growth, payments attach, and enterprise (Plus) upmarket expansion.
Risk Factors
What could impair the long-term thesis.
- Premium valuation
- Consumer-spending and e-commerce cyclicality
- Competition and take-rate pressure
Hypothetical Growth
What a past investment would be worth today.
Hypothetical growth calculator
See what an investment made years ago would be worth today, vs. the S&P 500 — a Premium tool.
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Forward Scenario Modeler
Project a starting investment across multi-decade horizons.
Forward scenario modeler
Model conservative, base, and optimistic returns across 10–40 year horizons with Premium.
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Data as of 2025-12-31. Illustrative sample data for research & education — not live market data, and not a recommendation to buy or sell SHOP.