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SHOP

stock55Aggressive

Shopify Inc.

Information Technology

$110.00
Mkt cap $141.90B

Snapshot

Commerce platform powering merchants of all sizes. High growth with improving profitability, but a premium multiple and consumer-spending sensitivity.

Rev 10Y CAGRi
38.0%
ROICi
11.0%
ROE
13.0%
FCF Margini
16.0%
Op. Margin
12.0%
Debt/Equityi
0.1
Div Yield
0.0%
Div Streaki
—
Payout
—
Shares 5Yi
+5.0%
Insider Own.
6.0%
Insider Activity
neutral

Long-Term Total Return

i

Decade-scale view, dividends reinvested, vs. the S&P 500.

SHOP13.9×S&P 5002.4×

Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the period, total return (price + reinvested dividends). Illustrative.

Risk Profile

i
Aggressive

Higher growth potential with larger drawdowns and uncertainty.

Volatilityi
45%
Betai
2.30
Max Drawdowni
-63%
1Y Return
+18%
momentum

2–5 Year Outlook

i

Hypothetical bear / base / bull scenarios — not a prediction.

Hypothetical 5-year scenarios for $10,000 invested today.

ScenarioAnnualizedTotal return$10,000 →
Bull
36%/yr FCF growth, exit 103× FCF
+37.4%/yr+389%$48,942
Base
20%/yr FCF growth, exit 88× FCF
+17.8%/yr+127%$22,676
Bear
5%/yr FCF growth, exit 59× FCF
-5.6%/yr-25%$7,495

Projects free cash flow forward and applies an exit valuation multiple (current ≈ 98× FCF). Dividends added at the current yield.

Hypothetical scenarios, not a forecast. These ranges are modeled from illustrative assumptions about growth and valuation — not predictions, price targets, or a recommendation to buy or sell. Real outcomes vary widely and can be negative. Not investment advice.

Fundamental Trends

Ten-plus years of the figures that drive long-term value.

10-year fundamental trend charts

Track revenue, earnings, free cash flow, ROIC, share count, and dividends over a decade-plus — a Premium research tool.

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Valuation Context

i

Valuation context

See P/E, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA against historical and sector medians with Premium.

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Moat Analysis

i
3 / 5
Network effectsSwitching costsScale advantages

A growing merchant ecosystem and app/partner network create stickiness; scale in payments and logistics is building, though competition from marketplaces is fierce.

Reinvestment runway

Global e-commerce growth, payments attach, and enterprise (Plus) upmarket expansion.

Risk Factors

What could impair the long-term thesis.

  • Premium valuation
  • Consumer-spending and e-commerce cyclicality
  • Competition and take-rate pressure

Hypothetical Growth

What a past investment would be worth today.

Hypothetical growth calculator

See what an investment made years ago would be worth today, vs. the S&P 500 — a Premium tool.

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Forward Scenario Modeler

Project a starting investment across multi-decade horizons.

Forward scenario modeler

Model conservative, base, and optimistic returns across 10–40 year horizons with Premium.

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Data as of 2025-12-31. Illustrative sample data for research & education — not live market data, and not a recommendation to buy or sell SHOP.