PLTR
stock62AggressivePalantir Technologies
Information Technology
Snapshot
Data-analytics and AI software for governments and enterprises. Rapid growth and expanding margins, but an extremely rich valuation leaves little room for error.
Long-Term Total Return
iDecade-scale view, dividends reinvested, vs. the S&P 500.
Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the period, total return (price + reinvested dividends). Illustrative.
Risk Profile
iHigher growth potential with larger drawdowns and uncertainty.
2–5 Year Outlook
iHypothetical bear / base / bull scenarios — not a prediction.
Hypothetical 5-year scenarios for $10,000 invested today.
| Scenario | Annualized | Total return | $10,000 → |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull 44%/yr FCF growth, exit 226× FCF | +45.1%/yr | +543% | $64,339 |
| Base 23%/yr FCF growth, exit 193× FCF | +20.8%/yr | +158% | $25,752 |
| Bear 3%/yr FCF growth, exit 129× FCF | -6.9%/yr | -30% | $6,989 |
Projects free cash flow forward and applies an exit valuation multiple (current ≈ 215× FCF). Dividends added at the current yield.
Fundamental Trends
Ten-plus years of the figures that drive long-term value.
10-year fundamental trend charts
Track revenue, earnings, free cash flow, ROIC, share count, and dividends over a decade-plus — a Premium research tool.
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Valuation Context
iValuation context
See P/E, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA against historical and sector medians with Premium.
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Moat Analysis
iDeeply embedded data platforms create switching costs, and an AI-ops lead is real — but the valuation is among the richest in software, pricing in years of flawless execution.
Commercial AI adoption and government expansion; large addressable market if execution holds.
Risk Factors
What could impair the long-term thesis.
- Extreme valuation — high downside if growth slows
- Heavy stock-based compensation
- Government-contract concentration and lumpiness
- Very large drawdowns
Hypothetical Growth
What a past investment would be worth today.
Hypothetical growth calculator
See what an investment made years ago would be worth today, vs. the S&P 500 — a Premium tool.
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Forward Scenario Modeler
Project a starting investment across multi-decade horizons.
Forward scenario modeler
Model conservative, base, and optimistic returns across 10–40 year horizons with Premium.
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Data as of 2025-12-31. Illustrative sample data for research & education — not live market data, and not a recommendation to buy or sell PLTR.