NVDA
stock94AggressiveNVIDIA Corp.
Information Technology
Snapshot
Designs GPUs and the CUDA software stack powering AI training/inference, data centers, gaming, and robotics. The reference platform for accelerated computing.
Long-Term Total Return
Decade-scale view, dividends reinvested, vs. the S&P 500.
Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the period, total return (price + reinvested dividends). Illustrative.
Risk Profile
Higher growth potential with larger drawdowns and uncertainty.
2–5 Year Outlook
Hypothetical bear / base / bull scenarios — not a prediction.
Hypothetical 5-year scenarios for $10,000 invested today.
| Scenario | Annualized | Total return | $10,000 → |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull 62%/yr FCF growth, exit 58× FCF | +60.0%/yr | +949% | $104,858 |
| Base 47%/yr FCF growth, exit 50× FCF | +43.7%/yr | +514% | $61,373 |
| Bear 32%/yr FCF growth, exit 33× FCF | +19.3%/yr | +142% | $24,151 |
Projects free cash flow forward and applies an exit valuation multiple (current ≈ 55× FCF). Dividends added at the current yield.
Technical Indicators
Objective price signals — moving averages, RSI, 52-week range — to interpret, not act on.
Illustrative daily prices (last ~9 months) with 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Mixed versus its moving averages — no clear trend.
- RSI 41 — neutral (neither overbought nor oversold).
- 14% below its 52-week high.
- MACD is below its signal line (negative momentum).
Technical indicators are objective descriptions of price behavior, not signals to act on. They are computed from illustrative sample prices and say nothing about a company's value. Not investment advice.
Fundamental Trends
Ten-plus years of the figures that drive long-term value.
10-year fundamental trend charts
Track revenue, earnings, free cash flow, ROIC, share count, and dividends over a decade-plus — a Premium research tool.
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Valuation Context
Valuation context
See P/E, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA against historical and sector medians with Premium.
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Moat Analysis
CUDA's mature software ecosystem creates high switching costs; a developer network effect and a rapid product cadence reinforce share. Durability depends on staying ahead of custom silicon.
AI data-center buildout is early; accelerated computing is expanding into inference, robotics, and sovereign AI — a very large multi-year wave.
Risk Factors
What could impair the long-term thesis.
- Extreme cyclicality risk if AI capex digests
- Customer concentration among hyperscalers
- Competition from custom ASICs and AMD
Hypothetical Growth
What a past investment would be worth today.
Hypothetical growth calculator
See what an investment made years ago would be worth today, vs. the S&P 500 — a Premium tool.
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Forward Scenario Modeler
Project a starting investment across multi-decade horizons.
Forward scenario modeler
Model conservative, base, and optimistic returns across 10–40 year horizons with Premium.
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Data as of 2025-12-31. Illustrative sample data for research & education — not live market data, and not a recommendation to buy or sell NVDA.