MSFT
stock71ModerateMicrosoft Corp.
Information Technology
Snapshot
Develops enterprise software, cloud infrastructure (Azure), productivity tools (Office/365), and gaming. Diversified, high-margin franchise with deep enterprise lock-in.
Long-Term Total Return
Decade-scale view, dividends reinvested, vs. the S&P 500.
Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the period, total return (price + reinvested dividends). Illustrative.
Risk Profile
Balanced growth with manageable swings.
2–5 Year Outlook
Hypothetical bear / base / bull scenarios — not a prediction.
Hypothetical 5-year scenarios for $10,000 invested today.
| Scenario | Annualized | Total return | $10,000 → |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull 23%/yr FCF growth, exit 44× FCF | +24.5%/yr | +199% | $29,911 |
| Base 13%/yr FCF growth, exit 38× FCF | +10.6%/yr | +66% | $16,568 |
| Bear 2%/yr FCF growth, exit 25× FCF | -7.0%/yr | -30% | $6,974 |
Projects free cash flow forward and applies an exit valuation multiple (current ≈ 42× FCF). Dividends added at the current yield.
Technical Indicators
Objective price signals — moving averages, RSI, 52-week range — to interpret, not act on.
Illustrative daily prices (last ~9 months) with 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages — a textbook uptrend.
- RSI 62 — neutral (neither overbought nor oversold).
- At or near its 52-week high.
- MACD is above its signal line (positive momentum).
Technical indicators are objective descriptions of price behavior, not signals to act on. They are computed from illustrative sample prices and say nothing about a company's value. Not investment advice.
Fundamental Trends
Ten-plus years of the figures that drive long-term value.
10-year fundamental trend charts
Track revenue, earnings, free cash flow, ROIC, share count, and dividends over a decade-plus — a Premium research tool.
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Valuation Context
Valuation context
See P/E, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA against historical and sector medians with Premium.
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Moat Analysis
Enterprise software embedded in customer workflows creates very high switching costs. Azure benefits from scale economics, and the Office/Teams ecosystem has network effects across organizations.
Cloud migration, AI copilots, and security are multi-decade enterprise spend categories; a very large and still-expanding addressable market.
Risk Factors
What could impair the long-term thesis.
- Premium valuation leaves little margin for execution slips
- Cloud capex intensity pressures near-term free cash flow
- Regulatory scrutiny of bundling and AI
Hypothetical Growth
What a past investment would be worth today.
Hypothetical growth calculator
See what an investment made years ago would be worth today, vs. the S&P 500 — a Premium tool.
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Forward Scenario Modeler
Project a starting investment across multi-decade horizons.
Forward scenario modeler
Model conservative, base, and optimistic returns across 10–40 year horizons with Premium.
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Data as of 2025-12-31. Illustrative sample data for research & education — not live market data, and not a recommendation to buy or sell MSFT.