MA
stock82ModerateMastercard Inc.
Financials
Snapshot
Global payments network and value-added services. Like Visa, an asset-light beneficiary of digital-payment growth, with a faster-growing services arm.
Long-Term Total Return
Decade-scale view, dividends reinvested, vs. the S&P 500.
Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the period, total return (price + reinvested dividends). Illustrative.
Risk Profile
Balanced growth with manageable swings.
2–5 Year Outlook
Hypothetical bear / base / bull scenarios — not a prediction.
Hypothetical 5-year scenarios for $10,000 invested today.
| Scenario | Annualized | Total return | $10,000 → |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull 17%/yr FCF growth, exit 36× FCF | +18.9%/yr | +137% | $23,717 |
| Base 9%/yr FCF growth, exit 31× FCF | +7.5%/yr | +44% | $14,354 |
| Bear 1%/yr FCF growth, exit 21× FCF | -7.8%/yr | -33% | $6,666 |
Projects free cash flow forward and applies an exit valuation multiple (current ≈ 35× FCF). Dividends added at the current yield.
Technical Indicators
Objective price signals — moving averages, RSI, 52-week range — to interpret, not act on.
Illustrative daily prices (last ~9 months) with 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Below its 200-day moving average — in a longer-term downtrend.
- RSI 38 — neutral (neither overbought nor oversold).
- 17% below its 52-week high.
- MACD is below its signal line (negative momentum).
Technical indicators are objective descriptions of price behavior, not signals to act on. They are computed from illustrative sample prices and say nothing about a company's value. Not investment advice.
Fundamental Trends
Ten-plus years of the figures that drive long-term value.
10-year fundamental trend charts
Track revenue, earnings, free cash flow, ROIC, share count, and dividends over a decade-plus — a Premium research tool.
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Valuation Context
Valuation context
See P/E, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA against historical and sector medians with Premium.
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Moat Analysis
Two-sided payment network with global acceptance and a growing data/services layer that deepens issuer and merchant relationships.
Cash displacement plus services and new payment flows; long runway in emerging markets.
Risk Factors
What could impair the long-term thesis.
- Interchange regulation
- Competition from alternative rails
- FX and cyclicality
Hypothetical Growth
What a past investment would be worth today.
Hypothetical growth calculator
See what an investment made years ago would be worth today, vs. the S&P 500 — a Premium tool.
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Forward Scenario Modeler
Project a starting investment across multi-decade horizons.
Forward scenario modeler
Model conservative, base, and optimistic returns across 10–40 year horizons with Premium.
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Data as of 2025-12-31. Illustrative sample data for research & education — not live market data, and not a recommendation to buy or sell MA.