HD

stock40Moderate

Home Depot

Consumer Discretionary

$400.00

Mkt cap $397.60B

Snapshot

Largest home-improvement retailer. Scale, supply chain, and a strong pro-contractor business; cyclical but well-run dividend grower.

Rev 10Y CAGR

6.0%

ROIC

30.0%

ROE

1000.0%

FCF Margin

9.0%

Op. Margin

14.0%

Debt/Equity

9.0

Div Yield

2.3%

Div Streak

15y

Payout

55%

Shares 5Y

-5.0%

Insider Own.

0.1%

Insider Activity

neutral

Long-Term Total Return

Decade-scale view, dividends reinvested, vs. the S&P 500.

HD4.2×S&P 5002.4×

Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the period, total return (price + reinvested dividends). Illustrative.

Risk Profile

Moderate

Balanced growth with manageable swings.

Volatility

28%

Beta

1.80

Max Drawdown

-39%

1Y Return

+23%

momentum

2–5 Year Outlook

Hypothetical bear / base / bull scenarios — not a prediction.

Hypothetical 5-year scenarios for $10,000 invested today.

Scenario	Annualized	Total return	$10,000 →
Bull 15%/yr FCF growth, exit 32× FCF	+17.7%/yr	+125%	$22,546
Base 6%/yr FCF growth, exit 28× FCF	+5.2%/yr	+29%	$12,913
Bear 0%/yr FCF growth, exit 19× FCF	-6.5%/yr	-29%	$7,150

Projects free cash flow forward and applies an exit valuation multiple (current ≈ 31× FCF). Dividends added at the current yield.

Hypothetical scenarios, not a forecast. These ranges are modeled from illustrative assumptions about growth and valuation — not predictions, price targets, or a recommendation to buy or sell. Real outcomes vary widely and can be negative. Not investment advice.

Technical Indicators

Objective price signals — moving averages, RSI, 52-week range — to interpret, not act on.

UptrendRSI 5611% off 52W high

HD price50-day avg200-day avg

Illustrative daily prices (last ~9 months) with 50- and 200-day moving averages.

52W High

$448.30

52W Low

$275.45

50-day avg

$394.57

200-day avg

$388.28

Trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages — a textbook uptrend.
RSI 56 — neutral (neither overbought nor oversold).
11% below its 52-week high.
MACD is above its signal line (positive momentum).

Technical indicators are objective descriptions of price behavior, not signals to act on. They are computed from illustrative sample prices and say nothing about a company's value. Not investment advice.

Fundamental Trends

Ten-plus years of the figures that drive long-term value.

10-year fundamental trend charts

Track revenue, earnings, free cash flow, ROIC, share count, and dividends over a decade-plus — a Premium research tool.

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Valuation Context

Valuation context

See P/E, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA against historical and sector medians with Premium.

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Moat Analysis

4 / 5

Scale advantagesBrandCost advantage

Scale in purchasing and logistics plus a dense store/distribution footprint create a cost and convenience advantage, especially for pro customers.

Reinvestment runway

Aging housing stock and home-improvement spend support long-term demand.

Risk Factors

What could impair the long-term thesis.

Housing-cycle and rate sensitivity
High financial leverage
Big-ticket discretionary exposure

Hypothetical Growth

What a past investment would be worth today.

Hypothetical growth calculator

See what an investment made years ago would be worth today, vs. the S&P 500 — a Premium tool.

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Forward Scenario Modeler

Project a starting investment across multi-decade horizons.

Forward scenario modeler

Model conservative, base, and optimistic returns across 10–40 year horizons with Premium.

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Data as of 2025-12-31. Illustrative sample data for research & education — not live market data, and not a recommendation to buy or sell HD.