COST
stock52ConservativeCostco Wholesale
Consumer Staples
Snapshot
Membership warehouse retailer. Earns most profit from renewing memberships, passing scale savings to members in low prices that drive loyalty.
Long-Term Total Return
Decade-scale view, dividends reinvested, vs. the S&P 500.
Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the period, total return (price + reinvested dividends). Illustrative.
Risk Profile
Lower volatility, steadier — capital preservation and income.
2–5 Year Outlook
Hypothetical bear / base / bull scenarios — not a prediction.
Hypothetical 5-year scenarios for $10,000 invested today.
| Scenario | Annualized | Total return | $10,000 → |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull 14%/yr FCF growth, exit 72× FCF | +15.0%/yr | +101% | $20,115 |
| Base 9%/yr FCF growth, exit 62× FCF | +6.7%/yr | +38% | $13,845 |
| Bear 4%/yr FCF growth, exit 41× FCF | -5.8%/yr | -26% | $7,411 |
Projects free cash flow forward and applies an exit valuation multiple (current ≈ 68× FCF). Dividends added at the current yield.
Technical Indicators
Objective price signals — moving averages, RSI, 52-week range — to interpret, not act on.
Illustrative daily prices (last ~9 months) with 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Below its 200-day moving average — in a longer-term downtrend.
- RSI 45 — neutral (neither overbought nor oversold).
- 7% below its 52-week high.
- MACD is below its signal line (negative momentum).
Technical indicators are objective descriptions of price behavior, not signals to act on. They are computed from illustrative sample prices and say nothing about a company's value. Not investment advice.
Fundamental Trends
Ten-plus years of the figures that drive long-term value.
10-year fundamental trend charts
Track revenue, earnings, free cash flow, ROIC, share count, and dividends over a decade-plus — a Premium research tool.
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Valuation Context
Valuation context
See P/E, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA against historical and sector medians with Premium.
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Moat Analysis
Scale purchasing and a low-margin, high-volume model create a cost advantage competitors can't match. Membership renewal rates above 90% are a recurring, high-margin moat.
Warehouse unit growth (especially international) and membership fee increases provide a steady, low-risk compounding path.
Risk Factors
What could impair the long-term thesis.
- Very high valuation relative to thin margins
- E-commerce competition
- Membership saturation in mature markets
Hypothetical Growth
What a past investment would be worth today.
Hypothetical growth calculator
See what an investment made years ago would be worth today, vs. the S&P 500 — a Premium tool.
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Forward Scenario Modeler
Project a starting investment across multi-decade horizons.
Forward scenario modeler
Model conservative, base, and optimistic returns across 10–40 year horizons with Premium.
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Data as of 2025-12-31. Illustrative sample data for research & education — not live market data, and not a recommendation to buy or sell COST.