ABNB
stock75AggressiveAirbnb, Inc.
Consumer Discretionary
Snapshot
Global short-term-rental marketplace. Strong brand and free cash flow, with growth that's sensitive to travel cycles and regulation.
Long-Term Total Return
Decade-scale view, dividends reinvested, vs. the S&P 500.
Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the period, total return (price + reinvested dividends). Illustrative.
Risk Profile
Higher growth potential with larger drawdowns and uncertainty.
2–5 Year Outlook
Hypothetical bear / base / bull scenarios — not a prediction.
Hypothetical 5-year scenarios for $10,000 invested today.
| Scenario | Annualized | Total return | $10,000 → |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull 30%/yr FCF growth, exit 21× FCF | +30.9%/yr | +284% | $38,390 |
| Base 16%/yr FCF growth, exit 18× FCF | +13.2%/yr | +86% | $18,579 |
| Bear 2%/yr FCF growth, exit 12× FCF | -8.3%/yr | -35% | $6,496 |
Projects free cash flow forward and applies an exit valuation multiple (current ≈ 20× FCF). Dividends added at the current yield.
Technical Indicators
Objective price signals — moving averages, RSI, 52-week range — to interpret, not act on.
Illustrative daily prices (last ~9 months) with 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages — a textbook uptrend.
- RSI 62 — neutral (neither overbought nor oversold).
- At or near its 52-week high.
- MACD is above its signal line (positive momentum).
Technical indicators are objective descriptions of price behavior, not signals to act on. They are computed from illustrative sample prices and say nothing about a company's value. Not investment advice.
Fundamental Trends
Ten-plus years of the figures that drive long-term value.
10-year fundamental trend charts
Track revenue, earnings, free cash flow, ROIC, share count, and dividends over a decade-plus — a Premium research tool.
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Valuation Context
Valuation context
See P/E, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA against historical and sector medians with Premium.
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Moat Analysis
A two-sided network and a verb-status brand; high free-cash-flow margins. Regulation and travel cyclicality are the main constraints.
Travel growth, new-market expansion, and experiences/services add-ons.
Risk Factors
What could impair the long-term thesis.
- Travel-cycle sensitivity
- Regulatory crackdowns on short-term rentals
- Slowing growth at scale
Hypothetical Growth
What a past investment would be worth today.
Hypothetical growth calculator
See what an investment made years ago would be worth today, vs. the S&P 500 — a Premium tool.
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Forward Scenario Modeler
Project a starting investment across multi-decade horizons.
Forward scenario modeler
Model conservative, base, and optimistic returns across 10–40 year horizons with Premium.
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Data as of 2025-12-31. Illustrative sample data for research & education — not live market data, and not a recommendation to buy or sell ABNB.